May We Take A Moment?
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OpenAI model activity is surfacing — worth tracking for capability changes, ecosystem impact, and availability.
The AI community has continually shifted its perception of machine intelligence, moving the goalposts as technology advances. The Turing Test, once a benchmark for machine awareness, is now considered flawed. GPT-3, initially dubbed "proto-AGI," demonstrated a significant leap in AI capabilities, with some suggesting that a 2016 observer would consider current frontier models to be AGI. This rapid desensitization to AI's progress highlights a constant re-evaluation of what constitutes true artificial intelligence.
Prior to ChatGPT, the turing test was typically considered to be the defining moment; the event that marked when we could no longer doubt machine awareness anymore than our own. Does anyone here even remember when models started passing it? What model was it? I feel like crossing this threshold was a blip in time and the immediate consensus was, "that's actually a flawed and easily gamed test". I'm not debating this idea, but it doesn't change the fact that we, as a community, as a society, have been quick to move the goal posts as we've become desensitized to the current state of the art.
I'd like to remind everyone that GPT-3, not ChatGPT/3.5, was referred to by the community as proto-AGI. If you were to have shown someone in 2016 a current frontier model, they would have likely considered it AGI. As someone that's been obsessed with AI since I was a child, I remember the moment I read GPT-3 output a convincing and coherent 4chan copypasta (cringe I know, but that was the moment) and realized we had entered a new era.
I constantly see posts in the vein of "it's not AGI until I see x" or "maybe by 2040, likely later". We're watching incremental improvements on benchmarks and half of us are scoffing every step of the way. I'm not a twitter hype train personality, but I can't help but shake the feeling, moreso the last few weeks, that we're climbing on the event horizon and many of us will be clinging to the graph and rationalizing away its existence.
I'm currently fullfilling my childhood daydreams and far fetched ideas by writing a few paragraphs into a terminal and pressing enter. I doubt there are many, if any, frontier researchers that don't at least consult a frontier model as a tool. Many high end developers I know are now telling me of all the cool projects, features, ideas, etc that they've made a reality rather than complaining about tracing bugs.
I suppose this is something I just needed to get out as someone who lurks this sub every day. I feel like we need to appreciate the moment we're witnessing and the shift that we're in. Sometimes it's hard to see it from one day to the next, but I'd like to have real discussions about it rather than alternate between comments that are "WOOO AGI NOW ACCELERATE" and "AGI will never exist, stochastic parrot" etc.
I personally was always in the camp that biological realism, such as Spiking Neural Networks, would have been required, or at least the best way, to achieve real intelligence. I still believe in the benefit, but I'm starting to change my mind a bit.