What will our economic future look like?

What will our economic future look like?

We don’t know yet how AI will reshape the economy. Will it lead to unprecedented growth? Widespread unemployment? Neither, or something else? How can we tell?

Anthropic’s Economics team built a model of how AI might affect jobs, growth, and unemployment in the US in coming years. Read about possible economic futures and make your own predictions about AI capabilities to see the economy they imply.

W e study how AI is reshaping the economy because we’re committed to ensuring that this transition is beneficial for society, including workers. By providing better visibility into our possible economic future, we can take steps to make sure that everyone benefits from it.

While our Economic Index measures how AI is being used across the economy right now, this scenario explorer is about looking ahead. Based on our technical report, Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI (Korinek et al., 2026), this explorer gives you a chance to find out what the economy might look like as AI continues to get more capable.

In scenarios ranging from business as usual to an economy where AI increases growth to about twice the normal rate, unemployment stays within the historical range and wages remain flat or rise depending on the industry. But in scenarios where growth is faster than anything in economic history, there are adverse impacts on wages and job prospects for knowledge workers. In those scenarios, society is far wealthier, so the challenge is making sure that the gains are broadly shared.

As you scroll down, you’ll see an overview of how AI affects the economy. Then, you can plug in your expectations for how capable AI will be, and how extensively it will be used across the economy in the future. The model will show you what the economy in 2030 might look like if your predictions come true—and how your predictions compare to others.

The answer depends on how AI affects all the tasks that make up the economy, the new tasks it creates, and how fast AI takes on this work. Will AI lead to more task augmentation or automation? How much more productive will it make us? How quickly will it be adopted by workers and companies? The answers to these questions have direct effects on GDP, the labor market, and the share of the pie taken home by workers.

How might powerful AI change the economy?

How do you think AI development will go over the next few years? And what would that path mean for the economy? We invite you to consider these questions, and explore potential answers with our scenario explorer.

People’s expectations about future AI capabilities vary.

In August, we surveyed more than 10,000 Americans about their views on present and future AI capabilities, adoption, and the ease of finding new work if they have to change occupations.

The typical respondent’s answers imply outcomes close to the “substantial change” scenario: GDP is 10% higher by 2030 than it would be without AI, and the overall unemployment rate has risen to around 5%. Around 10% of respondents have views in line with the extreme scenario.

How people answered the five questions (share of respondents at each answers)

- Capabilities

What tasks can AI do?

- Adoption

How much do people use AI?

- Autonomy

How much does AI do by itself?

- Productivity

How much more productive does AI make people?

- Adjustment

How long does it take people to find a new job?