Poll results 6 months later: When will we have Opus level with 30b model? Optimists win!
Heat trend
Collecting trend data
The percentage is based on available heat signal, not comment count or independent people.
Qwen model activity is surfacing — worth tracking for capability changes, ecosystem impact, and availability.
A Reddit poll from the beginning of the year asked when an Opus-level 30b open-weight model would be available.…
Poll at beginning of the year: https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/1qj935h/poll_when_will_we_have_a_30b_open_weight_model_as/
The least voted option, 6 months, wins in my opinion, with 18 votes, based on: https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/1vo9vi7/qwen_38_release/
Poll summary:
- 18 people voted for 6 months or less
- 41 people voted for 1 year
- 25 people voted for 18 months
- 56 people voted for 2 years
- 118 people voted for keep dreaming
- 55 people voted for Doesn't matter because you'll be drooling over next model anyways
Should we conduct a new poll for fable level performance in a 30b model? I suspect we will get much more optimistic results. :)