Is the current Open Weight LLM model viable in the long term?
这条记录涉及编程工具或代码能力更新，适合开发者评估工作流变化和可复用价值。
最近，Qwen团队发布了新模型，但其122B、35B、27B和9B版本尚未公开。这可能是因为这些大型模型表现出色，团队选择暂不发布，以待推出更强大的模型。有分析指出，开源模型目前落后最先进系统2-4个月，Qwen的延迟发布可能进一步拉大这一差距。这引发了人们对开源格局可能再次发生重大转变的担忧。…
I've been thinking about this lately. The Qwen team has released several new models recently, but they appear to be holding back the 122B , 35B, 27B, and 9B versions for now.
One possible reason is that these larger models performed so strongly that the team chose not to release them immediately as open weights. If that's the case, they will likely wait until they have even more capable models before making them available.
Recent analyses suggest open-source models are currently lagging 2–4 months behind state-of-the-art systems. With Qwen now adding further 1–2 month delays (or longer) before releasing open weights, I'm concerned the gap could continue to widen. Could this eventually lead to another significant shift in the open-source landscape, similar to what happened with Meta-Llama models?
To clarify my focus: I'm particularly interested in Qwen models because they currently offer the best performance among models that can realistically run on consumer-grade hardware.
While I understand some community members maintain more substantial local setups capable of running 500B or bigger models, my question is aimed at those of us working with standard consumer GPUs.