François Chollet was an AI skeptic who went from 10+ years to ~2030 on AGI. Now he expects it sooner.

模型发布

热度趋势

趋势数据积累中

百分比基于当前可用热度信号，而非评论数或独立用户人数。

AI 摘要

ARCAGI的创建者弗朗索瓦·肖莱特（François Chollet）曾是近期AGI和LLM扩展方面的怀疑论者。2024年，他估计AGI大约还需要10年。到2026年2月，他将AGI的时间表定在2030年左右，大致与ARCAGI 6-7的发布时间相符。然而，在最新的Astra发布和ARCAGI-3饱和之后，肖莱特现在认为AGI将“更快到来，因为进展比我预期的要快”。

François Chollet is the creator of ARCAGI and has historically been one of the more skeptical voices on near term AGI and LLM scaling.

In 2024 when he was asked about his AGI timeline, he recalled that his estimate would have been roughly 10 yearish. In February 2026 he said AGI around 2030~, roughly around the time of ARCAGI 6-7.

Today, following the latest Astra release and ARCAGI-3 saturation, he was asked whether he still thinks ~2030 is on track. His answer: “Sooner, given progress is happening faster than I expected.”