With each successive era of LLMs, from early scaling, to reasoning, to agentic, open models have taken half as long to catch up to the first closed model (SemiAnalysis)

According to SemiAnalysis, open models have consistently taken half as long to catch up to the first closed model with each successive era of AI. This trend has been observed across various stages of frontier models, including early scaling, reasoning, and agentic capabilities. The analysis suggests a narrowing gap between open and closed models, indicating a rapid advancement in the open-source AI community.