I don’t think we’re psychologically prepared for how alien the world after ASI is going to be
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一位Reddit用户对人们在面对人工智能（ASI）世界时的心理准备不足表示担忧。他们引用了“AI 2040”中的一个场景，指出即使刻意放缓AI发展速度，到2031年，AI也将承担三分之一的认知劳动，机器人则完成十分之一的体力劳动。…
gonna start by saying I’m feeling very iffy about ASI because I kinda enjoy my life rn, but that aside:
after going down the AI 2040 rabbithole, I keep thinking that even people who talk about ASI constantly are still imagining the future in a way that is way too normal. We talk about AI replacing people’s jobs, humanoid robots, self-driving cars, universal basic income, whatever the fuck. I think that might be the equivalent of someone in 1955 predicting the year 2000, trying to use our current world as a basis for the future world.
AI 2040 describes a scenario where even after deliberately slowing AI development down, by 2031 a third of cognitive labor is being performed by AI and robots are already doing about a tenth of physical labor. The document literally describes ordinary people as being too “whiplashed” by technological change to process what’s happening. And that’s the slowed version, can’t imagine what our world is going to look like since it seems we are going full speed ahead. And people will say “oh that’s just fantasy!” But is it? Imagine our world from the view of someone born in 1712. We are living “sci-fi” as we live and breath
If ASI actually produces the kind of acceleration its proponents expect, somebody born afterward might look back at 2026 the way we look at 1500. Except the historical gap between us would be just fourteen years MAX
I really, really don’t think we’re psychologically prepared for that