We are in a critical phase if we look at the AI 2027 paper futures model

According to the AI 2027 paper futures model, the current phase of AI development is critical. Claude Opus 5, released in July with an ECI score of 163 and 10^29 FLOPS, is considered a proto-AGI system with a 6-hour coding time horizon. The model predicts that within 3 to 5 months, systems will reach an ECI score of 172 and 10^30 FLOPS, extending the coding time horizon to 3 days. Further advancements to ECI 182 and 191 are projected to result in coding time horizons of a month and a year, respectively, with 191 essentially corresponding to RSI.

This post offers a specific futures model with concrete ECI scores and FLOPS thresholds, unlike more general discussions of AI progress.