Daniel Kokotajlo evaluates his 2021 essay, "What 2026 Looks Like."

Daniel Kokotajlo evaluated his 2021 essay, "What 2026 Looks Like," which predicted the world in 2026. This evaluation comes before he wrote his subsequent work, "AI 2027." The assessment focuses on how well his earlier predictions aligned with actual developments, providing insight into his foresight regarding future trends and events.

This report offers a rare, direct comparison of a prominent AI researcher's past predictions against current realities, unlike typical forward-looking analyses.