A Drake Equation for AI extinction risk?

Discussions are ongoing regarding the probability of advanced AI causing human extinction, with estimates varying widely. A proposed "Drake Equation for AI extinction risk" breaks down this probability into a causal chain. For example, P(A)=0.8, P(D|A)=0.7, P(M|A,D)=0.3, P(E|A,D,M)=0.5, P(C|A,D,M,E)=0.5, and P(X|C)=0.4 are used to illustrate how different probabilities assigned to individual links can lead to significant overall disagreement, even if fundamental views on AI are similar.

Unlike general discussions, this approach introduces a structured, probabilistic model similar to the Drake Equation, allowing for more granular analysis of AI extinction risk factors.