Poll results 6 months later: When will we have Opus level with 30b model? Optimists win!
热度趋势
趋势数据积累中
百分比基于当前可用热度信号，而非评论数或独立用户人数。
这条记录涉及编程工具或代码能力更新，适合开发者评估工作流变化和可复用价值。
Reddit上年初的一项投票询问何时会出现Opus级别的30b开源模型。据一位用户称，预测六个月内可用的选项（得票最少）已获胜，他引用了Qwen 38的发布作为证据。这一结果表明乐观主义者取得了胜利，因此有人建议就30b模型中实现“寓言级别性能”进行新的投票，并预计会得到更乐观的结果。
Poll at beginning of the year: https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/1qj935h/poll_when_will_we_have_a_30b_open_weight_model_as/
The least voted option, 6 months, wins in my opinion, with 18 votes, based on: https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/1vo9vi7/qwen_38_release/
Poll summary:
- 18 people voted for 6 months or less
- 41 people voted for 1 year
- 25 people voted for 18 months
- 56 people voted for 2 years
- 118 people voted for keep dreaming
- 55 people voted for Doesn't matter because you'll be drooling over next model anyways
Should we conduct a new poll for fable level performance in a 30b model? I suspect we will get much more optimistic results. :)